Research · Edition 1
UAE Employee Medical Cost Index 2026
Three published forecasts. Four percentage points between them. None of them UAE-specific — and what an employer can actually do about it.
In short
For 2026 the three major medical cost trend surveys forecast Middle East increases of 11.3% (WTW), 14.1% (Mercer Marsh Benefits) and 15.3% (Aon) — a four-point spread driven by different regional definitions and panels, and none of them is a UAE-only figure. Against that, UAE health cover premium grew 16.3% in 2025 to AED 30 billion, and employers now manage up to three separate mandatory regimes across one workforce.
Summary
Headline findings
Cost trend
Finding 1 — the forecasts disagree, and the reason matters
Three organisations publish an annual medical cost trend forecast that regional benefit budgets are routinely built on. For 2026 they do not agree, and the gap between the highest and lowest is wider than the difference most employers are arguing about at renewal.
Forecast 2026 medical cost trend: region versus global
Each survey uses a different regional definition. Aon and Mercer report Middle East & Africa; WTW reports the Middle East alone. Africa typically pulls a blended figure upward.
- Regional forecast (MEA / Middle East)
- Global forecast
Sources: Aon, Global Medical Trend Rates Report 2026 (Oct 2025) · Mercer Marsh Benefits, Health Trends 2026 (Oct 2025) · WTW, 2026 Global Medical Trends Survey (Nov 2025)
Why they differ. Three reasons, none of them error. First, geography: Aon and Mercer blend the Middle East with Africa, where trend runs materially higher; WTW reports the Middle East on its own. Second, what is being measured: some surveys forecast gross claim cost per member, others the premium increase an employer sees, and the two diverge whenever carriers absorb or release margin. Third, panel composition — each survey polls a different set of carriers, and in a market with 58 licensed carriers the panel changes the answer.
What none of them publishes is a UAE-only figure. Every headline regional number in circulation is a blend. An employer quoting one of them as “the UAE trend rate” is something that does not exist.
Trend
Finding 2 — the direction is consistent even where the level is not
Middle East medical cost trend, three-year path
WTW is used here because it is the only one of the three publishing a consistent Middle East series across all three years on the same definition.
- Middle East
- Global
Sources: WTW, Global Medical Trends Survey, 2024–2026 editions
The regional series crossed above the global average between 2024 and 2025 and the gap widens in the 2026 forecast. Whatever the true level, an employer planning on a flat renewal is planning against every published series.
Compliance floor
Finding 3 — one workforce, up to three mandatory regimes
A UAE employer with staff in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Sharjah is not managing one obligation. It is managing three, on different bases, with different minimum products and different renewal mechanics.
The mandatory floor by emirate grouping
The Northern Emirates scheme phases in through the residency renewal cycle rather than on a single cutover date — so a workforce moves onto it gradually, and payroll cost rises gradually with it.
Sources: MOHRE, Basic Health Insurance Scheme guidance · DHA Essential Benefits Plan product documentation, as summarised by market sources · Abu Dhabi DOH. Dubai EBP premium range is a market-sourced band, not a published DHA schedule.
Market context
Finding 4 — the market is growing faster than the economy around it
UAE cover market, 2025
Total UAE sector gross written premium reached AED 74.8bn in 2025, up 14.9%. Health was the fastest-growing major line. Total claims paid across the sector were AED 46.2bn, up 11%, across 58 licensed carriers.
- Gross written premium (AED bn)
- Year-on-year growth (%)
Sources: Central Bank of the UAE, annual statistical report for 2025, as reported August 2026
Health premium grew 16.3% in a year. That is the pool an employer's renewal is priced out of, and it is expanding faster than the sector as a whole. Two things drive it: more covered lives, as the Northern Emirates mandate pulls a previously uncovered population into the system, and higher cost per life. Only the second is something an individual employer can influence.
Gratuity
Finding 5 — the liability that grows while nobody looks at it
End-of-service gratuity is not a benefits cost in most management accounts, which is precisely why it becomes a problem. It accrues from an employee's first day under Federal Decree-Law No. 33 of 2021, at 21 days of basic wage per year for the first five years and 30 days per year after that, capped at two years' wage.
Accrued gratuity by length of service
Days of basic wage accrued, on continuous service. The slope steepens at year five, when the accrual rate rises from 21 to 30 days a year — so a stable, long-tenured workforce accrues liability faster every year it stays.
Sources: UAE Federal Decree-Law No. 33 of 2021, Article 51
Since October 2023 there has been a voluntary alternative: a federal end-of-service savings scheme under Cabinet Resolution No. 96 of 2023, where an employer contributes monthly into an approved fund at 5.83% of basic salary for employees under five years of service and 8.33% thereafter. It converts a lumpy, unfunded obligation into a predictable monthly cost.
One naming trap worth avoiding: DEWS, the DIFC scheme, has been mandatory for DIFC employers since February 2020 and uses the same contribution percentages. It is a different regime from the 2023 federal scheme, and conflating them is common.
Published gaps
What we could not verify
This is the section most published research leaves out. These are figures we looked for, could not stand behind, and have therefore not printed anywhere above.
- A UAE-only medical trend rate. None of the three major surveys publishes one. Every regional figure in circulation is a blend.
- Claims composition for the GCC — the split of spend between outpatient, inpatient, chronic care and maternity. We found only global claims-driver categories with no regional percentages.
- Abu Dhabi DOH basic versus enhanced plan economics. No source we could verify publishes premium ranges or limit tables distinguishing the two tiers.
- Dubai EBP premium and sub-limits to the dirham. Secondary sources disagree with each other on the medicine cap and the maternity limit; we could not locate a primary DHA schedule to settle it, so we have published a band and said so.
- Any percentage saving an employer should expect. We have seen no credible published dataset supporting a generic figure, and we do not publish one.
How this was built
Method
Desk research conducted in August 2026 against primary sources where they exist — UAE federal legislation, MOHRE guidance, and the Central Bank of the UAE's annual statistical report — and against the published editions of the Aon, Mercer Marsh Benefits and WTW medical trend surveys for regional cost forecasts. Where only secondary sources were available, they are identified as such in the figure notes.
Where two credible sources disagree, both are shown and neither is averaged. Where a figure could not be traced to a source we were willing to name, it appears in the gaps list above rather than in the findings. No figure in this report is derived from Keel Partners client data; we do not have enough of it yet to publish, and we will say so plainly when that changes.
This report is management commentary for employers. It is not insurance advice, and it is not a recommendation about any product, carrier or policy.
FAQ
Frequently asked
What number should we actually budget for 2026?
Budget a range, not a point. The published regional forecasts for 2026 span 11.3% to 15.3%, and none of them is UAE-specific. Your own claims experience, workforce demographics and network tier will move you within that band more than the choice of survey does. If your carrier proposes an increase outside that range in either direction, the useful question is what in your data justifies it.
Why is health cover growing faster than the rest of the market?
Two forces at once. More covered lives, as mandatory cover extended across the Northern Emirates from January 2025, and higher cost per life through medical inflation and utilisation. Only the second is something a single employer can influence, and only through design, network and governance.
Is the Northern Emirates scheme enough for our staff there?
It meets the legal minimum. It excludes maternity and dental, which for many workforces is the gap employees actually notice. Meeting the floor and having a benefit that helps retention are separate decisions and should be made separately.
Should we move to the end-of-service savings scheme?
It converts an unfunded lump-sum obligation into a predictable monthly cost, which suits a business that is growing headcount, planning a transaction, or would struggle to pay the liability if it crystallised. It is voluntary, and once you adopt it for a category of employee it applies to that category. The trade-off is cash timing, not total cost.
Do you sell any of the products mentioned here?
No. Keel Partners is not licensed as an insurance broker, agent, consultant or third-party administrator and takes no commission from anyone in that chain. Our fee is paid by the employer. That is the reason this report can tell you the forecasts disagree.
How often is this updated?
Annually, when the trend surveys publish in the fourth quarter, with an interim note if a regulatory change lands mid-year.
Next step
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